U.S. Imports in Q4 2025
From Near-Record Peaks to Tariff-Driven Declines
The U.S. import picture in 2025 tells a story of two halves: a near-record surge in summer shipments followed by a sharp, tariff-driven downturn heading into year’s end. According to the Global Port Tracker, U.S. ports handled 2.36 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) in July—up 20.1% from June and the second-busiest month on record, topped only by May 2022. Retailers had stocked up aggressively in anticipation of tariff hikes. But the back half of the year paints a far less optimistic picture.
From Stockpiling to Slowdown
Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, explained the dynamic clearly:
“We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with a number of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10% tariffs. We also continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success. These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”
This front-loading explains the July spike. But as tariffs took effect in August—including an additional 25% on India, bringing its total to 50%—the trajectory shifted downward.
August: projected at 2.28m TEU, down 1.7% year-over-year.
September: forecast 2.12m TEU, down 6.8%.
October: forecast 1.95m TEU, down 13.2%.
November: forecast 1.74m TEU, down 19.7%.
December: forecast 1.7m TEU, down 20.1%—the slowest month since March 2023.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, underscored the reality:
“Tariffs have had a significant impact on trade. The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.”
2025 in Review: A Peak Then a Pullback
First half of 2025: 12.53m TEU, up 3.6% YoY.
Full year forecast: 24.7m TEU, down 3.4% from 25.5m TEU in 2024.
In other words, despite the early surge, 2025 is set to close as a net negative year for U.S. imports, with a sharp late-year contraction overwhelming the mid-year highs.
Ripple Effects Into 2026
The data already point to a weak start for next year:
January 2026 forecast: 1.8m TEU, down 19.1% YoY.
For the U.S. economy
Consumers will face persistent inflation in categories like apparel, footwear, and electronics, as import costs stay high.
Retailers will increasingly adopt lean inventory models, reducing assortment depth and pushing just-in-time replenishment through nearshore and domestic suppliers.
For China and India
Both countries will feel extended pain from tariff walls. Even with Trump’s 90-day delay on higher China tariffs (now due Nov. 10), the uncertainty is driving permanent sourcing diversification. Indian exports, hit with a 50% tariff rate, will see sustained volume losses.
For Nearshore & ASEAN suppliers
Mexico, Central America, and the Dominican Republic stand to gain as U.S. brands accelerate CAFTA-DR and USMCA utilization.
Vietnam and other ASEAN exporters are absorbing reallocated orders, but capacity constraints and compliance bottlenecks will test their ability to capture sustained share.
For logistics & ports
West Coast ports will feel sharper declines as Asia-origin cargo shrinks.
East Coast and Gulf ports, tied more closely to Latin American flows, may see relative resilience.
Winners and Losers
Winners
Nearshore suppliers leveraging tariff-free trade agreements
ASEAN exporters (Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia) with scale capacity
U.S. domestic manufacturers in niche categories
Ports and carriers with diversified trade lanes beyond Asia
Losers
Chinese and Indian SMEs reliant on U.S. orders
U.S. retailers tied to low-cost, Asia-dependent models
Ocean carriers heavily invested in Trans-Pacific lanes
U.S. consumers, who will absorb higher costs at checkout
The Bottom Line
The last quarter of 2025 is not just a slowdown—it is a structural reset. After years of growth in Asia-origin imports, U.S. sourcing is fragmenting under the weight of tariffs, court challenges, and policy volatility.
Looking into 2026, the data already project double-digit declines in the first quarter. That means the global supply chain is entering a new normal: one where tariff resilience, nearshoring, and compliance matter as much as price. The brands and retailers that adapt quickly—by diversifying sources and embracing regional supply chains—will be best positioned to weather what’s coming next.