U.S. Holiday Sales 2025: Why the Apparel Supply Chain Should Care

With the U.S. holiday retail season now set to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, the trickle-down implications for apparel, sourcing, manufacturing and distribution are real. The forecast: sales up 3.7 %-4.2 % in November–December 2025 vs last year, translating to roughly $1.01-1.02 trillion in core retail spend. 

For brands, mills, cut-and-sew partners and near-shore/CAFTA-compliant suppliers, this means: strong opportunity, but also heightened pressure on speed-to-market, margin management, discounting, and inventory risk.

Key Takeaways for Apparel & Sourcing Professionals

1. Moderate Growth, Not Boom Growth

While the headline $1 trillion number is impressive, the growth rate is modest (~3.7-4.2 %) compared with the explosion in the early post-pandemic years.
Implication: Brands cannot assume “business as usual plus 10%.” Instead, you’ll need to sharpen cost controls, monitor markdown risk, and optimize fabric/trim procurement accordingly.

2. Consumer Behaviour: Discount-Focused, Value-Sensitive

The NRF commentary emphasises that consumers are “cautious in sentiment, yet fundamentally strong.” Retailers will lean into promotions, clearance risk may rise, and margins may be squeezed.
Implication: For apparel production, this means: tighter cost benchmarks; near-shore/quick-turn options increasingly attractive; and inventory commitments must be more agile and conservative.

3. Speed & Flexibility Matter — Near-shoring Advantage

Given inflation, trade uncertainty (tariffs) and consumer caution, reducing lead-times and improving responsiveness is a differentiator. The forecast mentions tariff-induced inflation pressures.
Implication: If you’re working with Guatemala for tees, Pakistan for fleece, Vietnam for cut-and-sew (as you do), lean into those near-shore, CAFTA-compliant, quick-turn capacities. Build inventory buffers strategically instead of long-tail speculative buys.

4. Returns & Inventory Risk Still Loom Large

While the holiday-sales number is optimistic, the broader environment remains volatile. For example, returns in 2025 are still expected to account for ~15.8% of merchandise purchases.
Implication: For apparel brands this means you need robust return-flow planning, size-/fit-guidance investment, and leaner initial production runs. Excess inventory is more costly than ever.

5. Regional / Geo-specific Opportunities Within the U.S.

Given you operate heavily in the U.S. market and are servicing brands across the country, keep in mind regional spending differences. While the national forecast is good news, consumers in different states will be impacted differently by employment, inflation and cost of living.
Implication: If your brand is strong in e.g. New England, California, Texas etc., layer in your own regional data (income growth, employment trends, cost of living) when setting sourcing volumes, promotional cadence and timing.

Why This Matters for the U.S. Apparel Landscape

In the U.S., apparel is often a discretionary spend. With consumers showing resilience despite inflation and trade friction, the holiday season remains critical for apparel revenues. The fact that the sector is forecast to cross the trillion-dollar mark is a signal: there is still appetite for goods, but the appetite is more measured and value-driven.
For brand developers, sourcing professionals and manufacturing executives, this means doubling down on operational excellence (cost, quality, lead-time) and ensuring your supply chain can pivot when consumer behaviour shifts.

Final Thoughts for MTAR & Your Network

As you prepare briefs, competitor matrices or near-shoring proposals for your apparel-brand clients (whether large legacy brands like Spanx or mid-sized graphic-tee brands), keep this holiday-forecast context front and centre:

• The consumer is spending, but slower growth means no room for inefficiencies.

• Near-shore agility + CAFTA compliance + quick resets = competitive edge.

• Inventory discipline and flexible sourcing will separate winners from laggards.

• U.S. regional differences, returns risk and discount pressure must be modeled from the outset.