Holiday Spending 2025: Strategic Shoppers and Technology Drive Resilient Retail Growth

As 2025 draws to a close, early aggregated data from Visa and Mastercard underscores a meaningful though cautious holiday spending season in the United States. Despite inflationary pressures and broader economic uncertainty, consumers demonstrated resilience, discipline, and an evolved approach to holiday purchases that retailers and brands can’t afford to ignore.

Holiday Sales Grow ~4% — With Consumer Intent at the Core

Preliminary figures from Visa and Mastercard show that U.S. holiday retail sales from November 1 through December 21 climbed approximately 4% year over year, a solid performance given macro headwinds. Mastercard’s own SpendingPulse data reported a 3.9% increase in retail sales (including food services) during this period, surpassing its earlier projection of 3.6%. Both firms reported growth not adjusted for inflation.

This growth reflects more than just spend volume it reveals how consumers are thinking and acting differently:

• Deliberate and strategic purchasing: Shoppers are buying smarter, browsing multiple channels for the best deals and timing purchases around promotions.

• Blended omnichannel behavior: E-commerce continues its ascent, though brick-and-mortar still captures the majority of transactions.

Key Trends Shaping Holiday Retail in 2025

Here’s what’s emerging as defining behaviors this season:

1. Omnichannel Shopping Is the New Norm

Rather than shopping exclusively online or in stores, consumers are blending experiences:

• Online sales rose faster than overall retail, fueled by early browsing, price comparisons, and convenience.

• In-store sales remain resilient as shoppers seek sensory validation especially for apparel and accessories before purchase.

For brands and retailers, this confirms that integrated digital and physical strategies including “buy online, pick up in store” and unified loyalty experiences are no longer optional.

2. Apparel and Experiences Lead Category Growth

Mastercard’s aggregated spending data shows standout category performance:

• Apparel and accessories saw strong year over year growth outperforming many other segments as consumers refreshed wardrobes and purchased seasonal gifts.

• Dining out emerged as an important holiday category, with restaurant spending signaling that experiences remain top of wallet for many consumers.

This shift toward experience-driven transactions not just product purchases suggests omnichannel engagements that tie storytelling, personalization, and community to commerce will differentiate winners from followers.

3. Technology, AI, and Consumer Confidence

Artificial intelligence and digital price discovery influenced how shoppers made decisions:

• Retailers are using AI to deliver tailored offers and real-time inventory insights.

• Shoppers themselves are leveraging digital tools to compare prices and secure savings within tight budgets.

For digital ecosystems like MTAR’s partners, this underscores the importance of data-driven customer insights, predictive analytics, and AI-enabled merchandising as drivers of conversion and loyalty.

What This Means for Retail and Supply Chain Leaders

The 2025 holiday season reveals a pivotal shift in holiday commerce:

Consumer Behavior Is Both Value Driven and Experience Oriented

Despite tight budgets, consumers are not purely transactional. They expect value, convenience, and engagement as part of every experience whether that’s securing a discount, finding the right size quickly, or discovering inspired gift ideas.

Brand Loyalty Hinges on Seamless Journeys

Retailers that break down friction between channels from discovery to purchase to returns will win. Omnichannel platforms, integrated loyalty rewards, and unified commerce are no longer differentiators; they are table stakes.

Data Is Your Competitive Advantage

Understanding real-time spend signals including where, when, and how consumers buy enables retailers to calibrate inventory, tailor promotions, and optimize staffing. Investing in analytics and predictive modeling now prepares organizations for leaner, more competitive seasons ahead.

Strategic Takeaways for 2026 Planning

1. Refine omnichannel playbooks
   Invest in unified commerce platforms that centralize customer profiles, purchase history, and preferences.

2. Leverage AI to reduce friction
   From hyper-personalized merchandising to automated insights, AI should enhance both back-end operations and front end experiences.

3. Plan promotions around customer intent
   Use historical and predictive data to time deals earlier, and to personalize offers that resonate with segmented shopper preferences.

4. Elevate experiences alongside products
   Curated experiences whether in store, online, or hybrid — build loyalty that transcends price-only competition.

If there’s one clear message from this holiday season’s data consumers are intentional, informed, and empowered. Retailers that listen, adapt, and innovate will convert sporadic seasonal interest into lasting customer relationships.